How Much Should We Fear Giancarlo Stanton In Pinstripes

After several weeks of involved trade discussions that would send prized Miami Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton to either the San Francisco Giants or St. Louis Cardinals, the baseball world was thrown a curveball Friday when it was reported that Stanton rejected both deals — and that the New York Yankees had swooped into the bidding. According to multiple reports, and assuming Stanton approves the deal, the Yankees had done on Saturday what the Giants and Cards couldn’t: They reeled in the game’s top power hitter.There were only two hitters last season who hit more than 50 home runs in MLB. Now, the Yankees have both of them: Stanton and fellow right-handed behemoth Aaron Judge. There’s reason to think Stanton will like hitting in Yankee Stadium as much as his new teammate. According to The Baseball Gauge’s park adjustments, Marlins Park was the third-most-difficult home run-hitting park for right-handed batters last season, which had the effect of depressing righty homers by about 20 percent relative to an average MLB ballpark.1The full-season park factor listed by The Baseball Gauge is 0.90, implying a 10 percent drop, but that number also reflects that a team plays half its games on the road, in (presumably) neutral parks. So the effect in Marlins home games alone would be about 20 percent. You read that right: Stanton smashed an MLB-leading 59 bombs — the most in baseball since 2001 — and took a serious run at Roger Maris’s pre-steroids HR record despite playing in one of the game’s most difficult parks for right-handed power hitters. There’s a reason Stanton was named NL MVP even though his team finished 20 games out of first place — it was one of the great individual seasons of this millennium.If you use The Baseball Gauge’s adjustment and extrapolate Stanton’s 2017 homers to a typical park, he’d project to have hit about 66 homers — easily shattering Maris’s mark. What’s more, Yankee Stadium ranked as the third-most-favorable park in baseball for right-handed home run hitters last season. Continuing our exercise above to project Stanton’s season into Yankee Stadium, he would figure to have hit around 73 homers (!!!) if he’d played in the Bronx instead of Miami. Now, the obvious caveats apply: Park factors are imperfect measurements that don’t account for each park’s exact dimensions, instead inferring the effect in a somewhat noisy way by looking at the change in home runs between a team’s home and road games. But even so, Stanton is probably going to get some kind of assist in his power numbers simply by upgrading his park situation.The real question for the Yankees is whether that boost will be enough to offset the tug of regression to the mean. Stanton had the best season of his career in 2017, and not just in the HR column, where he set a new career high by 22 homers. He also reached new career marks in isolated power, strikeout rate, on-base plus slugging and wins above replacement,2Using an average of the WAR models found at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. in addition to playing 150 games in a season for the first time since 2011. There’s a very good chance that last season was the best we’ll ever see out of Stanton, who still has at least 10 years and $295 million left on his gargantuan contract. It would be unfair to expect him to reproduce anything close to that level of performance, particularly given his history of injuries.According to WAR, Stanton was worth 7.2 wins at age 27 last season, the first time he ever broke the seven-win barrier in a single season. Since 1920, 66 hitters have cracked 7 WAR for the first time between the ages of 25 and 29 (provided they also put up at least 20 career WAR from their rookie season through their breakout season).3Stanton has 34.6 career WAR through 2017. Those players had that big year at an average age of 27.2 — roughly the same as Stanton last year — so they make for a good sample from which we can draw a comparison for Stanton’s next few seasons. Comparable players*276628.06.027.65.04.44.13.63.020.2 *Average for 66 comparable players.Sources: Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs PLAYERAGEPAWARPREV. HIGHCAREER WARYR+1YR+2YR+3YR+4YR+5NEXT 5 YRS. What’s in store for Giancarlo Stanton’s Yankees career?For players whose first 7-WAR season came between ages 25-29, average statistics in that season and each of the next five seasons, 1920-2017 IN FIRST 7-WAR SEASONWAR IN… G. Stanton276927.26.434.6?????? For our historical group — which includes the likes of Frank Robinson, Manny Ramirez and Tony Gwynn — the drop was relatively steep from their career-best season. On average, they fell from 8.0 WAR that year to 5.0 the following season, with the total diminishing over each of the next five years in a predictable aging pattern. Only 10 of the 66 ever had another season as good as their breakout campaign. Granted, Stanton’s big year was slightly less out of place with the rest of his career, so he’ll probably feel the pull of regression a bit less than other players might. And a batter who produces between 3 and 5 WAR is no bum — quite to the contrary, 5 WAR is roughly the border where All-Star seasons start to take shape.Plus, the Yankees might not even need Stanton to reproduce his 2017 in order to have a great season next year: Their run differential suggests they were roughly as good as the 104-win L.A. Dodgers last year, despite winning “only” 91 games. New York would have been formidable without Stanton, and with him (plus Judge, Gary Sanchez and others), they’ll be a right-handed power-hitting squad the likes of which the game may never have seen before.But at the same time, Stanton will probably not reach the heights of his performance from 2017 ever again — meaning the Yankees are getting a very good player but probably not one with perennial MVP potential. After all, there’s a reason they call it a “career year”: You only get one of them per customer.Either way, after several relatively quiet offseasons, general manager Brian Cashman and the Yankees seem to be returning to their big-ticket superstar roots. Now we’ll see if they can also revive the tradition of winning World Series. read more

The reason Jose Mourinho wont manage Real Madrid

first_imgA report from Marca confirms that the Real Madrid board of directors is not even considering the option of bringing Jose Mourinho back.Right after Jose Mourinho was sacked from Manchester United, the Spanish press started speculating on the Portuguese manager’s possible return to Real Madrid.There have been debates about this topic in the last couple of days, talking about Santiago Solari having pressure to improve and win the FIFA Club World Cup or Mourinho could take over immediately.However, an interesting report from Marca just surfaced where they confirm that the board of directors is actually not considering the option sooner or later.Real Madrid doesn’t think that bringing Jose Mourinho back to the club is the best idea for a number of reasons, the most important is that Solari is the club’s manager right now and they completely trust him to take the squad to a successful season.But other reasons include the manner in which the Portuguese manager left a few years back, with the dressing room on fire and half the players rooting for his dismissal.Jose Mourinho developed a poor relationship with some of the most important players in the squad during the final years and this affected the club’s performances inside the pitch.The club considers that taking the manager back right now or even later, would mean going back and they are not interested in that at the moment.harry maguire, manchester UnitedMaguire says United need to build on today’s win George Patchias – September 14, 2019 Harry Maguire wants his United teammates to build on the victory over Leicester City.During the summer, Harry Maguire was referred to as the ultimate…But perhaps the biggest reason they are not looking to sign Jose Mourinho back from Real Madrid, is the recent bad results that the manager has been piling up on his resume.Granted, he did win titles in both of the clubs where he managed during his first seasons but many of the same patterns from his final year at Los Blancos have emerged in England.The board of directors actually has a great friendship with the manager, they ask him for advice on a regular basis but they consider that his time as a manager for Real Madrid is long gone.🗣️@RobertoGomezOC en #LaTribu: “Sergio Ramos lo único que tiene que hacer es jugar al fútbol, no elegir entrenadores”.🤔¿Mourinho de vuelta al Real Madrid?📻 https://t.co/ilgsizI4uT pic.twitter.com/2BshSudPsu— Radio MARCA (@RadioMARCA) December 19, 2018last_img read more

Dr Jennifer Campbell on her race for District 2 seat

first_img KUSI Newsroom Categories: Local San Diego News, Politics Tags: Decision 2018 FacebookTwitter 00:00 00:00 spaceplay / pause qunload | stop ffullscreenshift + ←→slower / faster ↑↓volume mmute ←→seek  . seek to previous 12… 6 seek to 10%, 20% … 60% XColor SettingsAaAaAaAaTextBackgroundOpacity SettingsTextOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundSemi-TransparentOpaqueTransparentFont SettingsSize||TypeSerif MonospaceSerifSans Serif MonospaceSans SerifCasualCursiveSmallCapsResetSave SettingsSAN DIEGO (KUSI) – What is San Diego going to do about its homeless issues or short term vacation rentals? Those questions need to be answered by the people running for City Council.Doctor Jennifer Campbell is running against incumbent Lorie Zapf for the District 2 seat, and she joined us Tuesday afternoon with more on her campaign. Posted: October 9, 2018 October 9, 2018 KUSI Newsroom, Dr. Jennifer Campbell, on her race for District 2 seatlast_img read more

Praetorian Group Buys Fire Chief Assets from Penton

first_imgThe Praetorian Group is adding to its footprint in the safety and security industry with the acquisition of Fire Chief from Penton Media—the company’s third expansion since mid-2013.Fire Chief was shut down in November, but Praetorian, a b-to-b digital media publisher, is purchasing its trademark, Web domain and subscriber files, with plans to relaunch the brand as a digital-only entity in late February. Former subscribers will also be given access to the rest of Praetorian’s fire safety group, FireRescue1.”We’ll be greatly expanding our universe of readers, and we’ll be opening up new advertising opportunities to help [marketers] forge a conversation with high-level decision makers across the fire,” says Alex Ford, CEO of Praetorian, in a letter to readers. “We now have arguably the best capabilities of any firefighting media company to deliver quality content and product information to fire chiefs and officers.” See also: FOLIO: 100—Alex FordAs Ford alludes to, the purchase allows Praetorian to target high-level decision makers in the market with newsletters, segmented emails and ad units. The company’s FireRescue1 group has more than 240,000 registered members and 600,000 monthly unique visitors, while Fire Chief claims 47,000 subscribers and 55,000 monthly uniques, according to their respective media kits—a much smaller, but concentrated audience.The acquisition comes a few weeks after a partnership on app development with software firm, Draktonas, and follows the purchase of LocalGovU, an online training company, in May.last_img read more

Diddy Drake Guns N Roses Forbes HighestPaid Musicians Of 2017

first_img Twitter News Diddy, Drake, Guns N’ Roses: Forbes’ Highest-Paid Musicians Of 2017 Facebook Who Made Forbes’ 2017 Highest-Paid List? diddy-drake-guns-n-roses-forbes-highest-paid-musicians-2017center_img Who’s getting paid and then some? Check out the full top 10 list of highest-paid musicians courtesy of ForbesTim McPhateGRAMMYs Dec 8, 2017 – 8:09 am “Success doesn’t just end up on your lap. You have to work, work, work, and work some more.” Wise words from Sean “Diddy” Combs,” who personally knows a thing or two about working hard and positive results. The GRAMMY-winning mogul has worked his way to the top of many a mountain, including a new one: the top of Forbes’ top 10 list of highest-paid musicians in 2017. Diddy parlayed a Bad Boy Family Reunion Tour, a Cîroc vodka deal and the sale of 33 percent of his Sean John clothing line to pull in a cool $130 million.”I started looking at business at the age of 12, [from] delivering newspapers to working in gas station bathrooms, or even doing things like being a background dancer or a stylist,” Diddy told Forbes earlier this year. “Whatever I could do to get close to the industry.”Beyoncé placed second on the list with $105 million, driven by her successful Queen Bey Formation World Tour. Drake landed the No. 3 spot with $94 million, driven by his successful Boy Meets World Tour.Forbes’ list was based on pretax income earned between June 1, 2016, and June 1, 2017, with data collected from Nielsen SoundScan, Pollstar, the RIAA and interviews with industry insiders. View the entire list below.1. Diddy: $130 million2. Beyoncé: $105 million3. Drake: $94 million4. The Weeknd: $92 million5. Coldplay: $88 million6. Guns N’ Roses: $84 million7. Justin Bieber: $83.5 million8. Bruce Springsteen: $75 million9. Adele: $69 million10. Metallica: $66.5 millionApple Reveals Top Albums Of 2017 Email Read morelast_img read more

Boeing faces accusations of negligence at Dreamliner plant

first_imgThe Boeing logo at its headquarters in downtown Chicago. Joel Lerner/Getty Images Already under scrutiny after two deadly crashes of its 737 Max 8 aircraft, Boeing took an additional hit Saturday when a front-page story in The New York Times detailed alleged negligence at a South Carolina factory that makes another of Boeing’s jets.The Times report says Boeing “often valued production speed over quality” and that workers at the plant have routinely left metal shavings, tools and other potentially hazardous debris near electrical wiring in planes coming off the assembly line. The factory makes Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner aircraft.Boeing has also ignored employee complaints about the issues, says the report, which relies on interviews with current and former employees, along with corporate documents, internal emails and federal records.In one instance, workers found a ladder left behind in the tail of a plane, which could have locked up the gears of the horizontal stabilizer, a former Boeing technician told the paper.A Boeing representative told the Times that the South Carolina factory is “producing the highest levels of quality” in the company’s history. Another representative told the Times that Boeing prioritizes “safety and quality over speed” and that “safety issues are immediately investigated, and changes are made wherever necessary.”When asked by CNET to comment on the Times report, a Boeing representative pointed to a statement sent Saturday to employees of the South Carolina factory by Brad Zaback, vice president and general manager of the 787 program.The Times report “paints a skewed and inaccurate picture of the program and of our team here at Boeing South Carolina,” Zaback says in the statement. “This article features distorted information, rehashing old stories and rumors that have long ago been put to rest.”Boeing’s 737 Max 8 has been grounded in the US and elsewhere following two crashes within five months that killed 346 passengers and crew. Boeing has acknowledged that in both accidents, a flight control system called the MCAS, or Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, was activated due to faulty data from the planes’ external sensors.On Thursday, Boeing said an MCAS software fix was in its final form after a series of test flights. Federal Aviation Administration crews will join Boeing pilots in the air to evaluate the new MCAS software and determine whether it addresses problems around the nose of the aircraft being forced down during flight.Originally published April 20, 2:34 p.m. PT.Update, 3:01 p.m.: Adds statement by Boeing’s Brad Zaback. Tags 1 Comment Share your voice Tech Industry Aviation Boeinglast_img read more

Tata Sons plans to become private limited Mistrys look to scuttle move

first_imgA man walks past a Tata sign outside their offices in London, Britain March 30, 2016.Reuters fileTata Sons sought shareholders’ approval to amend its memorandum of association and articles of association to convert itself from a public limited company to private limited.It has also sought to change the name of the company from Tata Sons Limited to Tata Sons Private Limited, Business Standard (BS) reported on Friday.Cyrus Investments — one of Shapoorji Pallonji family’s holding companies — has already objected to Tata Sons’ attempt to convert to a private limited company, saying it amounts to oppression of minority shareholders, BS reported.”The proposal to convert Tata Sons from a public company to a private company constitutes yet another act of oppression of the minority shareholders of Tata Sons at the hands of the majority shareholders,” said Cyrus Investments in its letter to Tata Sons’ board of directors.Two investment firms of the Shapoorji Pallonji family own 18.4 percent equity stake in the company. On the other side, 66 percent stake is owned by the Tata Trust, while the rest of the shares are mostly held by the Tata family and group companies.The Board of Tata Sons had earlier in August, under the chairmanship of N Chandrasekaran, ordered its group to snap all ties with Cyrus and Shapoor Mistry’s SP Group.”As the promoter and principal shareholder of your company and as the custodian of the ‘Tata’ brand, Tata Sons does not support any businesses dealing in any form, whether directly or indirectly, through contracts or subcontracting arrangements,” Tata Sons had said in a directive signed by FN Subedar, chief operating officer. In picture: Cyrus MistryReutersTata sons requires 75 percent votes in favour of the resolution to change its corporate structure. The holding company’s annual general meeting (AGM) is scheduled for September 21.Other than shareholders approvals, the company also needs clearance from National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) to change its corporate structure.When asked why Tata Sons was being converted into a private limited company, a spokesperson told BS: “The reinstatement of Tata Sons as a private company was considered by the board to be in its best interest.”Corporate law experts have mixed opinions on this, with many of them believing that converting to a private limited concern would entail lesser compliance requirements for Tata Sons.There is no mandatory requirement of independent directors when a company goes private. “This could be construed as detrimental to the status of minority shareholder,” BS quoted a corporate law expert as saying.last_img read more

CEC to meet president 1 Nov

first_imgAbdul Hamid and KM Nurul HudaChief election commissioner (CEC) KM Nurul Huda and other election commissioners will meet president Abdul Hamid at Bangabhaban on 1 November.The president is scheduled to meet the CEC and other election commissioners around 4:00pm, said president’s press secretary Md Joynal Abedin while talking to UNB.last_img

A Path Out Of Poverty Career Training Quality Pre K

first_img Share Logan Faerber/Getty Images/Imagezoo RMWhat makes a high-quality learning program effective not just for the child but the whole family? What else, besides a well-run pre-K, is essential to help families break out of intergenerational poverty?These are some of the key questions that an approach called “two-generation” programs are working to answer. There are many of these “two-gen” programs across the U.S. And while they differ in emphasis and detail, at their core they intentionally focus on ways to help both the child and parent. Usually this happens through targeted education and career training and other vital support such as health services, mentoring, and transportation.NPR Ed has been keeping an eye on one innovative two-gen program in Oklahoma. It’s called Career Advance and is run by the Community Action Project of Tulsa County (CAP Tulsa). I’ve reported on it here and here. It gives low-income mothers access to high-quality Head Start for their children, alongside free career training in nursing and other in-demand health care fields as well as life coaching and support.A new study on the first year impact of Tulsa’s Career Advance that’s just been released shows that, so far, Career Advance is working well for both parents and their children. In fact, the study says, CAP Tulsa’s program is working better than similar combined job training and pre-K programs elsewhere in terms of job certification, employment, income and overall well-being for the parent. And, the report shows, the program has boosted attendance and reduced absenteeism among participating children.I reached out to two of study’s co-authors to find out more. Teresa Eckrich Sommer is a research professor at Northwestern University’s Institute for Policy Research. Chris King is a senior research scientist and lecturer at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin.When I went down to report on the program, no one had studied it in-depth. Is this the first big look at this program and its impact? Teresa Ekrich Sommer: This is the first one. We’re [a colleague, Lindsay Chase-Lansdale at Northwestern University, is the first author on this paper] looking at what happens at the end of year one.In terms of their education, we see that participants had much higher rates of certification in the healthcare fields. And then we see that in terms of employment, a greater proportion of the families, at the end of the first year, are employed in the specific career to which they’ve been trained, as compared to those who weren’t in the program. Sixty-one percent compared to 3 percent.Chris King: I would add to that, Eric, that the kinds of impacts we’re seeing, certainly in terms of job certification, the shifts towards healthcare employment are much larger than anything you see in most other similar career pathway programs. I think this speaks to the components of the model: the career coaching, the peer groups and the incentives.[The program offers a $3,000 a year max incentive if certain goals are reached — for example, attendance at monthly partner meetings for skills training, as well as incentives for achieving milestones such as certification.]You’re saying that there’s no secret sauce, that it’s the whole package? The financial incentives, the career counseling, the mentoring, etc., all together?Eckrich Sommer: We can’t conclusively say what single element matters the most. You know, at the base, just having this high-quality early childhood education is an incredible starting point for them.There’s no question that the financial incentives make an enormous difference to them in their lives. Many of them have previous college debt, and are struggling financially. And we have people in the comparison group that are similar in motivation and interest and talk about how big their financial struggles are. So I think that’s a significant piece.Also, I wouldn’t want to leave out the importance of the fact that these are families doing this together. They’re in a small learning group. They go to school together, they have their schedules for school when they start out coordinated with their child’s Head Start schedule, so they can both pick up and drop off their kids and still go to school. And many continue to work, usually in off hours.And also this coach is an essential element to helping families break down big goals, set specific markers along the way and be able to achieve them. Such as becoming a certified nurse assistant or becoming a licensed nurse practitioner, and knowing how to make those steps and decide, ‘Should I take a full course-load? Can I take a half course-load? How do I do this and manage the work and income I need for my family?’ with the education that they’re trying to pursue at the same time.For the children, I also see that attendance was better and fewer were chronically absent. But the absentee rate is still kinda high. Near 50 percent. Do you think there’s more to do to lower that?Eckrich Sommer: I think there is. I know that the eye goes towards the high rate. The bar is pretty low, it’s missing 10 percent or more of the school days. It tends to be a few kids who are absent a lot that drive up those numbers.Your report argues that Career Advance is doing better than comparable career training programs in other cities in America. In your view, what exactly is Career Advance doing better?King: Career Advance fits within the family of other career pathway sector strategies. Employer-driven strategies based in specific growth sectors of the labor market that offer opportunities for career advancement over time in jobs with good wages and benefits, e.g., health care, advanced manufacturing, transportation and logistics. It may be that they have more of all these elements feeding together to make the success possible. What we really have, I think, blown away is traditional postsecondary workforce and education training which doesn’t have persistence completion and employment kinds of effects the same size, at all, to what we’re seeing here.Eckrich Sommer: What’s incredibly important is that we’re building on what’s already a positive platform, which is early childhood education. So we know the kids are getting these huge benefits. And then we’re adding to that these incredible benefits to the parents.The question is, what is the overall effect over time? And as we follow the kids we’ll know that in a few years.There’s additional help under the program: gas cards, bus passes, childcare outside of Head Start’s normal hours. Overall, it’s costly. Can it be scaled or replicated easily?King: Easily, probably not. … It’s admittedly a high-cost intervention. So you’re paying for both parents and kids to get leading-edge, high-quality services, very intensive. At the same time, the way the Career Advance model has rolled out, it really hasn’t been a model that relied on the other partners involved to ante up.And I think going forward the way to scale this thing up is to go to the workforce system. To go to the community college system. To go to other providers in the community and say ‘OK, we’re providing the wraparound services, the career coaches, the Head Start services.’ You could then begin to share the cost for training those parents going forward and probably cut those costs to some extent.We know that the return on investment for early childhood is what, [between] 7 [and] 13-to-1. I mean, it’s high. We see similar returns for adult services in career pathway sector models. So the theory that we’re operating under, we don’t have the proof yet, is that when you combine them, you should get at least that, if not more.If someone from another city said ‘We want to replicate this, but it looks expensive.’ What do you tell them?Eckrich Sommer: What’s really interesting and important to think about is these initial investments, I think, have led to some changes in the way the local educational partners do their business. And that kind of systems change is essential.So, for example, by buying classes at the local community college, and working very closely with the instructors there, they’ve thought much harder about how do you serve families well? Parents of young children, who in fact, are a large majority of the population at many community colleges nationally.And so if you change the way things are done in a traditional school system, then you’re making improvements that you can’t even quantify, but you know , are the result of this initial big investment.It’s not cheap, but it is less expensive than the initial intensive model.And we will have more results, unfortunately, in about five years.What are the takeaways here for cities and states that might not be able to afford this kind of a gold-standard program, but still want to try to replicate some of the achievements CAP Tulsa is seeing?King: [Colleges need to] make it easier for all students, but especially parents, to navigate what the offerings are, and focus those offerings on sectors that are growing, that will lead to families sustaining jobs. Project Quest in San Antonio has done a good job. [Other leading examples include programs with the Wisconsin Regional Training Partnership, Per Scholas, and Jewish Vocational Services.]Having governors support [two-gen] strategies and having local workforce entities pursue them is now part of the federal legislation and guidance coming out of the U.S. Department of Labor. Under the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act, governors must support implementation of career, private sector strategies statewide and are encouraged to embed career pathway approaches as well.Eckrich Sommer: I think it’s about partnership. And I think community colleges and early childhood education programs and anti-poverty programs can work together, and figure out how they can both serve parents and children.And I think they’re both invested in that, but they tend to focus on their primary population and if they think about investing in the other, and how it’ll improve the gains for each, then everyone’s better off.[The CAP Tulsa study was funded in part by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services as part of the Affordable Care Act’s Health Professions Opportunity Grant]Copyright 2017 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.last_img read more

New model for social marketing campaigns details why some information goes viral

first_img(PhysOrg.com) — Marketers dream of finding ways to get something to “go viral” on the Internet. Indeed, viral marketing, whether it be through email, YouTube, Facebook or Twitter, has become the Holy Grail of online marketing campaigns. With viral marketing, it is possible for the message to reach millions in a matter of hours. Marketers and scientists alike have been studying this phenomenon in the hopes that it will yield information about human dynamics. “There has been a lot of research done on social networks,” Esteban Moro tells PhysOrg.com. “However, until now it has been rare to get feedback from an actual performed experiment. Most research on social media is done with data that is inferred. But we have real experimental data for the basis of our model.” Moro is a scientist at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences at Carlos III University in Madrid, Spain. Along with José Luis Iribarren at an IBM division based in Madrid, Moro devised a viral marketing experiment that provides some quantitative conclusions about how something goes viral online. Their work appears in Physical Review Letters: “Impact of Human Activity Patterns on the Dynamics of Information Diffusion.”“Most models of information diffusion through social media are based on the idea of homogeneity in human response,” Moro explains. According to Moro, most models are based around the average time that it takes for a person to respond to a request and then to pass it on. This model, while it might be useful in predicting some aspects of online marketing campaigns, does not adequately account for the reasons that some rumors, advertisements, content and even viruses suddenly explode worldwide in what is known as “going viral.”“Humans respond differently,” Moro continues. “We performed a viral marketing experiment and used the response to build a different model, based on the heterogeneity of human response.” The experiment consisted of seeding a campaign over the Internet that rewarded participants for passing it along via email to friends and colleagues. The email messages reached more than 30,000 individuals in 11 European countries, and Moro and Iribarren were able to track the spread of the piece of information through social networks. “Collectively, most information moves at a slower pace through networks than expected,” Moro says.But, if information moves slower than expected through social networks, how does one explain some information that “goes viral” quickly? Moro says that there is a tipping point of information spreading through social networks. The ability to surpass that tipping point and reach most of the collectivity is determined by those who are more actively involved in social media. “Some people respond to email within a couple of minutes. They are more active on social networks. If these people find something compelling, they respond quickly and propagate the information through their social neighborhood,” Moro says. “It’s about a difference in the way we schedule priorities, and differences in the way humans send information.” Time dynamics of the biggest viral cascade, from Spain. Each “snapshot” represents the process at different times. The circles represent participates and the arrows describe the propagation of the message. Colors are meant to help you keep track of different stages of the message propagation. Image credit: Esteban Moro and José Luis Iribarren. This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only. On the other hand, if information does not reach the tipping point needed to “go viral,” it is because that information is at the mercy of those who take longer to respond. Instead of capturing the interest of the fastest responders, some information merely moves slowly through social networks, sometimes lasting months or years as it continues to be pushed through social media channels as people get around to it after days or weeks. “Even though our experiment lasted only a couple of months,” Moro says, “we were still receiving responses after finishing it. People were still responding. It was just taking them longer to get around to it.”The model offers interesting insight into human dynamics. “Our work shows that there is no such thing as a typical time scale in human dynamics, and the impact of this fact in information diffusion,” Moro insists. “This sharply contrasts with current information diffusion models that base information spread on homogenous response time.” He also points out that this work could also be helpful in tracking the spread of fads, hoaxes, opinions or rumors. Moro says that IBM has a patent to detail a model for viral marketing campaigns. “Our model allows us to predict how many people get the campaign message the first day, and how long it will take the message to go through social networks. The model provides a mathematical framework for modeling efficiency in social networks.” More information: José Luis Iribarren, Esteban Moro, “Impact of Human Activity Patterns on the Dynamics of Information Diffusion,” Physical Review Letters (2009). Available online: link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevLett.103.038702 . Copyright 2009 PhysOrg.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed in whole or part without the express written permission of PhysOrg.com.center_img Citation: New model for social marketing campaigns details why some information ‘goes viral’ (2009, August 6) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2009-08-social-campaigns-viral.html The Physics of Friendship Explore furtherlast_img read more