In the eternally running discussion thread “Hey Bill” at billjamesonline.com, the website of sabermetric legend Bill James, the question came up of measuring the growth of sabermetric knowledge. James’s idea? Measure the extent to which teams are taking park factors into account when judging their rosters. But Tom Tango, author of “The Book,” offered another gauge: look at which teams are using good hitters in the No. 2 lineup slot.Traditionally, the two-hole was the domain of contact hitters with good bat control, with premiums placed on the ability to hit behind the runner, to sacrifice bunt, and to generally move the leadoff man over (even if it meant making an out). You can see this statistically: During Major League Baseball’s expansion era (1961-present), the No. 2 slot has the highest aggregate contact rate of any batting order position.But research by Tango and his compatriots suggests teams have been doing it wrong. After examining how important each batting event (single, double, walk, etc.) is to each lineup slot — based on factors such as how many runners are likely to be on base and how many outs they’re likely to hit with — the data says a team ought to bat its three best hitters in the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 4 slots, with the most balanced hitter occupying the two-hole. That’s a far cry from the conventional wisdom of slotting the best hitter either third or fourth, and putting a weak contact specialist at No. 2.So, if there are more good hitters in the second position, it’s a possible sign sabermetrics has penetrated the managerial mindset. But if there’s a pattern toward a more enlightened lineup card, it’s not detectable by looking at the average quality of No. 2 hitters (according to weighted runs created, known as wRC+) since the introduction of the designated hitter in 1973:If we take a five-year moving average to smooth out year-to-year variance above, it’s even clearer that we’re not in the golden age of great hitters batting second:Historically, the quality levels of MLB leadoff and No. 2 hitters tend to track with each other — and contra the performances of third and fourth hitters. (Meanwhile, Nos. 5 and 6 have stayed fairly stable over the years, with the five slot outproducing six by a decent amount.) The good news is that it appears the two-hole has emerged from the dark ages of the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, when slot Nos. 3 and 4 vastly outpaced Nos. 1 and 2.It may not be coincidental that the bleakest of times for the No. 2 spot came during MLB’s so-called steroid era. The stat we’re using, wRC+, compares a player’s per-plate appearance productivity against the average of all hitters, and the power hitters who frequently bat third and fourth may have received the benefits of performance-enhancing drugs at a greater rate than the overall population of MLB batters. (This would cause No. 2 hitters to move backward relative to the overall average, even if they themselves saw no change in talent.) With the specter of performance-enhancing drugs reduced in today’s game, the gap between hitter No. 2 and Nos. 3 and 4 has returned to its long-term norm.Still, today’s two-hole batters lag behind those of the halcyon late 1980s and early 1990s, when players such as Ryne Sandberg, Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Roberto Alomar, Julio Franco and Lou Whitaker were doing a large share of their damage from the second spot in the lineup. It’s plausible that the conditions of the game back then simply favored the traditional archetype of the No. 2 hitter more (batting averages were higher, as was the ratio of on-base percentage to slugging), but today’s managers also don’t appear to be moving toward the sabermetric ideal of penciling the team’s best hitter into the No. 2 spot.Sabermetrics has come a long way since the first analysts began tinkering with mathematical models, and there are certainly places where statistical thinking has made its way onto the field (for example, the explosion of defensive shifts in today’s game is rooted in probability theory regarding where a batter is most likely to hit the ball). But when it comes to the two-hole, baseball’s decision-makers still have a bit of a climb ahead of them.
Alabama 12-1212100%>99% ▲ 2132% North Carolina 11-11091542%10% ▲ 211% Alabama 12-1212100%>99% ▲ 2128% Clemson 12-015758%76% ▲ 2114% Stanford 10-2761148%7% ▼ 6a1% Oklahoma 11-1331100%>99% ▲ 2140% Ohio State 11-16230%7% ▼ 9a1% Stanford 11-27611100%6% ▼ 8a<1% Oklahoma 11-1351100%99% ▲ 2139% TeamCFPEloFPIConf. TitlePlayoffNat. Title Iowa 12-1415260%<1% ▼ 39<1% LIKELIHOOD OF BEING SEEDED… College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings as of Dec. 1. Includes completed games as of 8 p.m., Dec 5. Playoff probability changes are since Dec. 2; only changes greater than 5 percentage points are shown. UPDATE (Dec. 6, 1:03 a.m.): Despite all the articles FiveThirtyEight published about the different scenarios that could end the college football season, all that chaos never materialized. The playoff committee’s choice is clear: Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Michigan State should be the four teams to make the playoff.In case you’re a visual learner, here are our model’s playoff projections: All that’s really unknown going into the final committee rankings on Sunday are the seeding it will give to the four teams. Our model projects those, too: RankingProbability of … Ohio State 11-16330%2% ▼ 14<1% Iowa 12-04142639%39% ▲ 213% Clemson92%9%<1%<1% RankingProbability of … Oklahoma<1<16632 Clemson has a 92 percent likelihood of snagging the top seed, a position they’ve held in every one of the committee’s rankings thus far. There’s an inertia to these things, and Clemson hasn’t done much to shake the committee’s faith. The 13-0 Tigers finish their season as the only undefeated FBS team, with impressive wins against Notre Dame, Florida State and North Carolina. (Phantom offsides calls presumably don’t factor into the committee’s seedings.)Alabama — the one-loss champions from the SEC — are next in line, fresh off a dominating win against Florida. Currently ranked No. 2 by the committee, the Tide have a 91 percent shot at the No. 2 seed (the most likely outcome), but could possibly leapfrog Clemson to be the playoff‘s top dog (a 9 percent chance). Either way, Alabama is in the top two.Where Oklahoma and Michigan State end up is less clear. The Sooners have been the No. 3 ranked team in the last two committee rankings, and despite an early-season loss to Texas, Oklahoma measures up well according to advanced metrics, like ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and Chase Stuart’s Simple Rating System. It’s unknown, though, just how much the committee weighs these metrics, leaving Oklahoma with a 66 percent probability of landing in the No. 3 spot.Michigan State survived a thrilling challenge from Iowa in the Big Ten championship, capping an epic 22-play drive with a touchdown in the final minute. Michigan State has the opposite odds of Oklahoma — the Spartans are likely to be seeded No. 4, but could jump to No. 3 depending on the committee’s whims. Then again, the Spartans might not want the No. 3 slot — that likely means they’ll have to play Alabama instead of Clemson, and according to our metrics Alabama is better.If you take a look at that first chart again, you’ll see that Oklahoma is the favorite to win the national title at 39 percent despite likely being seeded third. The Sooners are the No. 1-rated team according to ESPN’s Football Power Index1FPI uses a slew of measures — such as game outcomes, margin of victory, strength of schedule, offensive and defensive team efficiencies — to predict outcomes. You can read more about how it’s constructed here, and why FiveThirtyEight uses it for our game simulations here., which our model uses to simulate game outcomes.2The FPI-based projections presented here may change. FPI rankings will be updated following Saturday’s games. The metrics are higher on the Sooners than the committee has been.One last note: Stanford fans: you may notice a 6 percent shot at the playoff. But that’s just the model being conservative. While the Cardinal played a tough schedule and easily won the Pac-12, it’s extremely unlikely they’ll make it into the playoff over Michigan State. There just wasn’t enough chaos this year. Ohio State<1<1<12 ORIGINAL POST (Dec. 5, 8:24 p.m.): The Tide are rolling into the College Football Playoff. After dominating Florida 29-15 to win the SEC championship, Alabama is a lock for the playoff according to FiveThirtyEight’s model — though you probably didn’t need fancy stats to tell you that.Below are our updated playoff odds following Alabama’s win but before the ACC, Pac-12 and Big Ten championship games began. As we’ve outlined before, our model sees both Oklahoma and the winner of Iowa vs. Michigan State as shoo-ins. Michigan St.<1<13260 Alabama991<1<1 Michigan St. 12-15214100%93% ▲ 3211% Now it’s just a matter of where the Tide will be ranked within the top four. Last week they were placed at No. 2, but after winning against Florida, our model gives them a 45 percent shot at the No. 1 slot. If Clemson wins, that number gets much lower. The Tide are good, but the committee is likely to keep an undefeated ACC champion as the top team.The path for Stanford and Ohio State, meanwhile, just got much more treacherous. Both teams’ odds fell to 7 percent. Following Alabama’s win, they each need Clemson to lose against North Carolina later tonight; and, of course, the Cardinal need to win the Pac-12 championship over USC to stay in contention. But even then it’s no sure thing.Speaking of North Carolina, the Tar Heels are down, but in better shape than other underdogs because of that last game against Clemson. Because there’s only one playoff slot available to them (Alabama and Oklahoma are now locks, as is the Big Ten winner) the Tar Heels’ odds fell, but only by four percentage points, down to 10 percent. However, if they can upset Clemson and win the ACC, those odds rise to 25 percent. So a UNC playoff berth would still make for a surprise on Sunday, but there’s a chance the committee will smile upon their conference championship and big win against the former No. 1 team in the country.Then again, there’s also a 43 percent chance the committee will put Clemson in the playoffs anyway. We’re only a few hours away from knowing more! Check back in late tonight after the final games for our last predictions before the committee releases its final rankings. NO. 1NO. 2NO. 3NO. 4 TeamCFPEloFPIConf. TitlePlayoffNat. Title Michigan St. 11-1541461%60% ▲ 217% College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings as of Dec. 1. Playoff probability changes are since Dec. 2; only changes greater than 5 percentage points are shown. Stanford<1<1<15 Clemson 13-0147100%>99% ▲ 2320% For those of you who want more nitty-gritty about our projections, check out our original methodology manifesto, as well as a methodology update from earlier this season.
Lucas Digne is undergoing a medical at Everton’s training base ahead of his transfer move from FC Barcelona.The French left-back is closing on a £20million move to the Toffees after both clubs agreed on a transfer fee on Sunday night. Digne arrived on Merseyside on Monday as he seeks to get his career back on track at Everton after spending the last few years as second fiddle to Jordi Alba in Barcelona.The former Paris Saint-Germain defender was previously on tour with the Spanish champions in the United States and was an unused substitute during their penalty shoot-out win over Tottenham Hotspur.The Catalan club confirmed Digne’s departure on social media, according to Sky Sports:“Digne has traveled back to Barcelona with the club’s permission to finalise his departure from the club.”The former Lille man paid tribute to the Catalan club on Instagram, saying:Top 10 players who played for both Barcelona and Valencia Boro Tanchev – September 14, 2019 Time to talk about the best players who represented both Barcelona and Valencia, prior to their La Liga encounter at Camp Nou this evening.“I want to say thank you very much to the club and everyone associated with the club.”“Thanks to the players, the staff, the physios and everyone that makes the club a family,”Digne made 46 appearances for Barcelona since joining from PSG two years ago and was also a part of France’s 23 man squad to the UEFA European Championships in France.The left-back missed out on the chance to play in the World Cup after he was dropped from the team due to lack of appearances at club level for Barcelona.Digne becomes new manager Marco Silva’s second summer signing after Brazilian winger Richarlison signed for the club last week from Watford.
Arsenal boss Unai Emery insists that Aaron Ramsey remains important to him, although he will not get involved with his contract talksThe 27-year-old midfielder’s current deal will expire at the end of the season with latest reports suggesting that a new offer by Arsenal has been withdrawn.The Gunners have also allegedly decided to part with Ramsey in the winter transfer window should no further progress be made at that point.Speaking ahead to Arsenal’s home game against Watford on Saturday, Emery gave his take on Ramsey’s situation at North London.Virgil van Dijk praises Roberto Firmino after Liverpool’s win Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Virgil van Dijk hailed team-mate Roberto Firmino after coming off the bench to inspire Liverpool to a 3-1 comeback win against Newcastle United.“There are three elements, three aspects. One is the player and also the player with their family and representatives. The other is the club and the other is the squad. My focus is always on the team,” said Emery on the club website.“My focus is preparing with the players and only thinking about the match tomorrow.”Asked whether he considers Ramsey to be important, Emery replied: “For me, every player is very important with their relation with the team. I consider each player an important space in the squad.”
Borussia Dortmund’s left-back spoke to El Larguero about the lack of relationship he had with Julen Lopetegui, Real Madrid’s former manager.Now that Julen Lopetegui is out and Santiago Solari is in at Real Madrid, Moroccan left-back Achraf Hakimi has a bigger chance to play for Los Blancos due to his good relationship with the new boss.This Monday evening, the Dortmund player offered an interview to El Larguero ahead of his squad’s Champions League match against Atletico Madrid at the Metropolitano Stadium.The Colchoneros lost their first match against the vibrant German squad that is filled with young players such as Achraf, but this will be a very special match for him because of his past as a Madridista and he will certainly try to enjoy it.The last time these two squads faced a few weeks ago, Atletico painfully lost 4-0 at Signal Iduna Park with a staggering three assists from the young Real Madrid product.This impact he is making in German football is a perfect way to convince Los Blancos that he needs to return to the club as soon as possible, everybody thought that he was already in talks with the club due to the fantastic season he is having with Borussia Dortmund.But to everybody’s surprise, Achraf is actually not even planning on a return yet because he only had contact with Lopetegui once.📻 @AchrafHakimi en @ellarguero, sobre su salida del Madrid: “Lopetegui tampoco sabía mucho lo que iba a pasar, a quien iban a traer y demás. Le dije que prefería tener minutos y él no sabía si iban a traer algún fichaje y demás. No, no fue decisión suya” https://t.co/JD2CAggxTj pic.twitter.com/DSYry7pK9l— El Larguero (@ellarguero) November 5, 2018This revelation is nothing but another main reason why Julen Lopetegui was clearly not the ideal man to coach Real Madrid, his lack of understanding of the environment was too great to ignore and his inability to recognize that the young players are the club’s best bet for the future is what doomed him in the end.Achraf is already getting all the recognition he deserves in Germany, and he is also getting all the attention he needs from the club because Santiago Solari is currently in charge.The Argentine manager coached Achraf during his time at Castilla and all he needs now is for Santi to stay as the boss, the player is aware that the opportunity is there and this Tuesday will be key for him to finally convince Florentino that he needs to return and become the next great left-back who can help Marcelo retire with grace and without worrying about leaving his position unprotected.Because of Borussia Dortmund’s visit to Madrid where they will play against Atletico this Tuesday, Achraf agreed to do an interview with El Larguero and spoke about the possibility of going back to Real Madrid and his lack of relationship with Lopetegui.Merson believes Arsenal should sign Sancho Manuel R. Medina – September 14, 2019 Borussia Dortmund winger Jadon Sancho might be the perfect player to play for the Gunners, according to former England international Paul Merson.#UCL mood ⚽ pic.twitter.com/MXxVRUNQVV— Achraf Hakimi (@AchrafHakimi) November 5, 2018“I didn’t really have a lot of contact with Lopetegui. I only had one phone call with him before the season started to see what my situation was and that’s it,” said Achraf to Cadena Ser’s El Larguero.“He didn’t really know what was going to happen because he was going through his first days at Real Madrid and he had no idea who the club was going to bring. And well, I also told him that I preferred having more minutes and he didn’t know if the club was going to sign a player in my position or not.”“Things are very difficult at Real Madrid right now, but I think the club will come out on top in the end. I’m happy for Solari because he has the chance to coach the first squad and he will prove his worth little by little.”“I love the intensity he transmits in every practice, in every match, you can see how it shows on the pitch.”“I’ve been a Madridista since I was a little kid and I would love to succeed in the club of my life.”“But I’m only thinking about the present for now, which is to succeed in Dortmund and make things go well for me. Then we will see what happens later,” he concluded.Achraf: “No hablé mucho con Lopetegui, él tampoco sabía muy bien lo que iba a pasar” https://t.co/BDeFYze18k pic.twitter.com/IkjGixacBv— El Larguero (@ellarguero) November 5, 2018When do you think is the best time for Achraf to return to Real Madrid? Please share your opinion in the comment section down below.
The Boeing logo at its headquarters in downtown Chicago. Joel Lerner/Getty Images Already under scrutiny after two deadly crashes of its 737 Max 8 aircraft, Boeing took an additional hit Saturday when a front-page story in The New York Times detailed alleged negligence at a South Carolina factory that makes another of Boeing’s jets.The Times report says Boeing “often valued production speed over quality” and that workers at the plant have routinely left metal shavings, tools and other potentially hazardous debris near electrical wiring in planes coming off the assembly line. The factory makes Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner aircraft.Boeing has also ignored employee complaints about the issues, says the report, which relies on interviews with current and former employees, along with corporate documents, internal emails and federal records.In one instance, workers found a ladder left behind in the tail of a plane, which could have locked up the gears of the horizontal stabilizer, a former Boeing technician told the paper.A Boeing representative told the Times that the South Carolina factory is “producing the highest levels of quality” in the company’s history. Another representative told the Times that Boeing prioritizes “safety and quality over speed” and that “safety issues are immediately investigated, and changes are made wherever necessary.”When asked by CNET to comment on the Times report, a Boeing representative pointed to a statement sent Saturday to employees of the South Carolina factory by Brad Zaback, vice president and general manager of the 787 program.The Times report “paints a skewed and inaccurate picture of the program and of our team here at Boeing South Carolina,” Zaback says in the statement. “This article features distorted information, rehashing old stories and rumors that have long ago been put to rest.”Boeing’s 737 Max 8 has been grounded in the US and elsewhere following two crashes within five months that killed 346 passengers and crew. Boeing has acknowledged that in both accidents, a flight control system called the MCAS, or Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, was activated due to faulty data from the planes’ external sensors.On Thursday, Boeing said an MCAS software fix was in its final form after a series of test flights. Federal Aviation Administration crews will join Boeing pilots in the air to evaluate the new MCAS software and determine whether it addresses problems around the nose of the aircraft being forced down during flight.Originally published April 20, 2:34 p.m. PT.Update, 3:01 p.m.: Adds statement by Boeing’s Brad Zaback. Tags 1 Comment Share your voice Tech Industry Aviation Boeing
Share Logan Faerber/Getty Images/Imagezoo RMWhat makes a high-quality learning program effective not just for the child but the whole family? What else, besides a well-run pre-K, is essential to help families break out of intergenerational poverty?These are some of the key questions that an approach called “two-generation” programs are working to answer. There are many of these “two-gen” programs across the U.S. And while they differ in emphasis and detail, at their core they intentionally focus on ways to help both the child and parent. Usually this happens through targeted education and career training and other vital support such as health services, mentoring, and transportation.NPR Ed has been keeping an eye on one innovative two-gen program in Oklahoma. It’s called Career Advance and is run by the Community Action Project of Tulsa County (CAP Tulsa). I’ve reported on it here and here. It gives low-income mothers access to high-quality Head Start for their children, alongside free career training in nursing and other in-demand health care fields as well as life coaching and support.A new study on the first year impact of Tulsa’s Career Advance that’s just been released shows that, so far, Career Advance is working well for both parents and their children. In fact, the study says, CAP Tulsa’s program is working better than similar combined job training and pre-K programs elsewhere in terms of job certification, employment, income and overall well-being for the parent. And, the report shows, the program has boosted attendance and reduced absenteeism among participating children.I reached out to two of study’s co-authors to find out more. Teresa Eckrich Sommer is a research professor at Northwestern University’s Institute for Policy Research. Chris King is a senior research scientist and lecturer at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin.When I went down to report on the program, no one had studied it in-depth. Is this the first big look at this program and its impact? Teresa Ekrich Sommer: This is the first one. We’re [a colleague, Lindsay Chase-Lansdale at Northwestern University, is the first author on this paper] looking at what happens at the end of year one.In terms of their education, we see that participants had much higher rates of certification in the healthcare fields. And then we see that in terms of employment, a greater proportion of the families, at the end of the first year, are employed in the specific career to which they’ve been trained, as compared to those who weren’t in the program. Sixty-one percent compared to 3 percent.Chris King: I would add to that, Eric, that the kinds of impacts we’re seeing, certainly in terms of job certification, the shifts towards healthcare employment are much larger than anything you see in most other similar career pathway programs. I think this speaks to the components of the model: the career coaching, the peer groups and the incentives.[The program offers a $3,000 a year max incentive if certain goals are reached — for example, attendance at monthly partner meetings for skills training, as well as incentives for achieving milestones such as certification.]You’re saying that there’s no secret sauce, that it’s the whole package? The financial incentives, the career counseling, the mentoring, etc., all together?Eckrich Sommer: We can’t conclusively say what single element matters the most. You know, at the base, just having this high-quality early childhood education is an incredible starting point for them.There’s no question that the financial incentives make an enormous difference to them in their lives. Many of them have previous college debt, and are struggling financially. And we have people in the comparison group that are similar in motivation and interest and talk about how big their financial struggles are. So I think that’s a significant piece.Also, I wouldn’t want to leave out the importance of the fact that these are families doing this together. They’re in a small learning group. They go to school together, they have their schedules for school when they start out coordinated with their child’s Head Start schedule, so they can both pick up and drop off their kids and still go to school. And many continue to work, usually in off hours.And also this coach is an essential element to helping families break down big goals, set specific markers along the way and be able to achieve them. Such as becoming a certified nurse assistant or becoming a licensed nurse practitioner, and knowing how to make those steps and decide, ‘Should I take a full course-load? Can I take a half course-load? How do I do this and manage the work and income I need for my family?’ with the education that they’re trying to pursue at the same time.For the children, I also see that attendance was better and fewer were chronically absent. But the absentee rate is still kinda high. Near 50 percent. Do you think there’s more to do to lower that?Eckrich Sommer: I think there is. I know that the eye goes towards the high rate. The bar is pretty low, it’s missing 10 percent or more of the school days. It tends to be a few kids who are absent a lot that drive up those numbers.Your report argues that Career Advance is doing better than comparable career training programs in other cities in America. In your view, what exactly is Career Advance doing better?King: Career Advance fits within the family of other career pathway sector strategies. Employer-driven strategies based in specific growth sectors of the labor market that offer opportunities for career advancement over time in jobs with good wages and benefits, e.g., health care, advanced manufacturing, transportation and logistics. It may be that they have more of all these elements feeding together to make the success possible. What we really have, I think, blown away is traditional postsecondary workforce and education training which doesn’t have persistence completion and employment kinds of effects the same size, at all, to what we’re seeing here.Eckrich Sommer: What’s incredibly important is that we’re building on what’s already a positive platform, which is early childhood education. So we know the kids are getting these huge benefits. And then we’re adding to that these incredible benefits to the parents.The question is, what is the overall effect over time? And as we follow the kids we’ll know that in a few years.There’s additional help under the program: gas cards, bus passes, childcare outside of Head Start’s normal hours. Overall, it’s costly. Can it be scaled or replicated easily?King: Easily, probably not. … It’s admittedly a high-cost intervention. So you’re paying for both parents and kids to get leading-edge, high-quality services, very intensive. At the same time, the way the Career Advance model has rolled out, it really hasn’t been a model that relied on the other partners involved to ante up.And I think going forward the way to scale this thing up is to go to the workforce system. To go to the community college system. To go to other providers in the community and say ‘OK, we’re providing the wraparound services, the career coaches, the Head Start services.’ You could then begin to share the cost for training those parents going forward and probably cut those costs to some extent.We know that the return on investment for early childhood is what, [between] 7 [and] 13-to-1. I mean, it’s high. We see similar returns for adult services in career pathway sector models. So the theory that we’re operating under, we don’t have the proof yet, is that when you combine them, you should get at least that, if not more.If someone from another city said ‘We want to replicate this, but it looks expensive.’ What do you tell them?Eckrich Sommer: What’s really interesting and important to think about is these initial investments, I think, have led to some changes in the way the local educational partners do their business. And that kind of systems change is essential.So, for example, by buying classes at the local community college, and working very closely with the instructors there, they’ve thought much harder about how do you serve families well? Parents of young children, who in fact, are a large majority of the population at many community colleges nationally.And so if you change the way things are done in a traditional school system, then you’re making improvements that you can’t even quantify, but you know , are the result of this initial big investment.It’s not cheap, but it is less expensive than the initial intensive model.And we will have more results, unfortunately, in about five years.What are the takeaways here for cities and states that might not be able to afford this kind of a gold-standard program, but still want to try to replicate some of the achievements CAP Tulsa is seeing?King: [Colleges need to] make it easier for all students, but especially parents, to navigate what the offerings are, and focus those offerings on sectors that are growing, that will lead to families sustaining jobs. Project Quest in San Antonio has done a good job. [Other leading examples include programs with the Wisconsin Regional Training Partnership, Per Scholas, and Jewish Vocational Services.]Having governors support [two-gen] strategies and having local workforce entities pursue them is now part of the federal legislation and guidance coming out of the U.S. Department of Labor. Under the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act, governors must support implementation of career, private sector strategies statewide and are encouraged to embed career pathway approaches as well.Eckrich Sommer: I think it’s about partnership. And I think community colleges and early childhood education programs and anti-poverty programs can work together, and figure out how they can both serve parents and children.And I think they’re both invested in that, but they tend to focus on their primary population and if they think about investing in the other, and how it’ll improve the gains for each, then everyone’s better off.[The CAP Tulsa study was funded in part by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services as part of the Affordable Care Act’s Health Professions Opportunity Grant]Copyright 2017 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.
Listen 00:00 /20:44 X This week, Jay Aiyer and Brandon Rottinghaus are taking a “summer vacation” from politics but they wanted to share a new podcast presented by Houston Public Media. It’s called “Stories from the Storm” and it’s conversations with community leaders, public servants, and everyday Houstonians who reflect – nearly a year later – on Hurricane Harvey and how the storm changed their lives. To embed this piece of audio in your site, please use this code: In this first episode, Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale (a Houston icon and founder of the store Gallery Furniture) and store manager Anthony Lebedzinski tell the story of how Gallery Furniture came to be a place of refuge during Harvey, including harrowing water rescues that helped bring displaced Houstonians to the store.You can subscribe to the podcast and watch a video of this conversation and nine others at houstonpublicmedia.org/harvey.We’ll be back on the political bandwagon next week. We wonder if there will be anything to talk about? This article is part of the Party Politics podcast Share
(PhysOrg.com) — Marketers dream of finding ways to get something to “go viral” on the Internet. Indeed, viral marketing, whether it be through email, YouTube, Facebook or Twitter, has become the Holy Grail of online marketing campaigns. With viral marketing, it is possible for the message to reach millions in a matter of hours. Marketers and scientists alike have been studying this phenomenon in the hopes that it will yield information about human dynamics. “There has been a lot of research done on social networks,” Esteban Moro tells PhysOrg.com. “However, until now it has been rare to get feedback from an actual performed experiment. Most research on social media is done with data that is inferred. But we have real experimental data for the basis of our model.” Moro is a scientist at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences at Carlos III University in Madrid, Spain. Along with José Luis Iribarren at an IBM division based in Madrid, Moro devised a viral marketing experiment that provides some quantitative conclusions about how something goes viral online. Their work appears in Physical Review Letters: “Impact of Human Activity Patterns on the Dynamics of Information Diffusion.”“Most models of information diffusion through social media are based on the idea of homogeneity in human response,” Moro explains. According to Moro, most models are based around the average time that it takes for a person to respond to a request and then to pass it on. This model, while it might be useful in predicting some aspects of online marketing campaigns, does not adequately account for the reasons that some rumors, advertisements, content and even viruses suddenly explode worldwide in what is known as “going viral.”“Humans respond differently,” Moro continues. “We performed a viral marketing experiment and used the response to build a different model, based on the heterogeneity of human response.” The experiment consisted of seeding a campaign over the Internet that rewarded participants for passing it along via email to friends and colleagues. The email messages reached more than 30,000 individuals in 11 European countries, and Moro and Iribarren were able to track the spread of the piece of information through social networks. “Collectively, most information moves at a slower pace through networks than expected,” Moro says.But, if information moves slower than expected through social networks, how does one explain some information that “goes viral” quickly? Moro says that there is a tipping point of information spreading through social networks. The ability to surpass that tipping point and reach most of the collectivity is determined by those who are more actively involved in social media. “Some people respond to email within a couple of minutes. They are more active on social networks. If these people find something compelling, they respond quickly and propagate the information through their social neighborhood,” Moro says. “It’s about a difference in the way we schedule priorities, and differences in the way humans send information.” Time dynamics of the biggest viral cascade, from Spain. Each “snapshot” represents the process at different times. The circles represent participates and the arrows describe the propagation of the message. Colors are meant to help you keep track of different stages of the message propagation. Image credit: Esteban Moro and José Luis Iribarren. This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only. On the other hand, if information does not reach the tipping point needed to “go viral,” it is because that information is at the mercy of those who take longer to respond. Instead of capturing the interest of the fastest responders, some information merely moves slowly through social networks, sometimes lasting months or years as it continues to be pushed through social media channels as people get around to it after days or weeks. “Even though our experiment lasted only a couple of months,” Moro says, “we were still receiving responses after finishing it. People were still responding. It was just taking them longer to get around to it.”The model offers interesting insight into human dynamics. “Our work shows that there is no such thing as a typical time scale in human dynamics, and the impact of this fact in information diffusion,” Moro insists. “This sharply contrasts with current information diffusion models that base information spread on homogenous response time.” He also points out that this work could also be helpful in tracking the spread of fads, hoaxes, opinions or rumors. Moro says that IBM has a patent to detail a model for viral marketing campaigns. “Our model allows us to predict how many people get the campaign message the first day, and how long it will take the message to go through social networks. The model provides a mathematical framework for modeling efficiency in social networks.” More information: José Luis Iribarren, Esteban Moro, “Impact of Human Activity Patterns on the Dynamics of Information Diffusion,” Physical Review Letters (2009). Available online: link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevLett.103.038702 . Copyright 2009 PhysOrg.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed in whole or part without the express written permission of PhysOrg.com. Citation: New model for social marketing campaigns details why some information ‘goes viral’ (2009, August 6) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2009-08-social-campaigns-viral.html The Physics of Friendship Explore further